Publications by Dr. Elvire Fabry

Brexit: Potential scenarios amid turbulent waters

At the turn of the summer of 2018, we are in turbulent Brexit waters. The only clear fact is that the United Kingdom (UK) intends to exit the EU on 29 March 2019—two years after the British government triggered Article 50 of the TEU. Beyond the effective withdrawal from the EU, a transition period agreed between the two parties should allow the status quo to prevail until December 2020 except that the UK will have no more participation nor say in EU institutions and agencies. The transition period will provide for a much needed delay to negotiate the details of the new post-Brexit relations. Elvire Fabry and Nicole Koenig discuss potential scenarios for EU-UK trade relations and defence cooperation.  more

Transition: a Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Brexit Galaxy

Brexit will enter into force on 29 March 2019. Without an agreement on future relations, the UK will revert to accessing the single market under WTO rules. Economic turmoil cannot be ruled out as the British government struggles to clarify its priorities. This Policy paper by Elvire Fabry and Marco de Toffol explores ways in which a transition agreement could avert a "cliff-edge" scenario. more

European defence: Who sits at the table, what’s on the menu?

The military capacity of European states is plagued by 20 years of under-investment, fragmentation and national short-sightedness. While previous attempts at launching Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) in defence failed, a deal is now within reach. Europeans should strike the balance between inclusiveness and ambition, which will set the table for the next decade of European defence cooperation.  more