Publications by Lucas Guttenberg

The CDU votes – what are the consequences for Europe?

What are the consequences of the new CDU presidency for Europe in general and in particular for the currency union? Lucas Guttenberg, deputy director of the Jacques Delors Institute Berlin explains in the run-up to the elections: "When Merz says that Greece should have left the euro in 2015, he calls into question the euro’s character as an irreversible currency union. If that is really his position, then people should start worrying. Merkel always resisted all attempts to drive Greece out of the euro – even from her own finance minister – because she understood that you cannot run a currency union like a fixed exchange-rate regime. Kramp-Karrenbauer seems to be on the same line. Much like his mentor Schäuble, Merz breaks with the position of the chancellor and puts euro exit as a policy instrument back on the table. If Merz wins and Merkel stays on as chancellor and then a question like Greece arises – who calls the shots and who will the party follow?” more

“This comes at the worst possible moment.”

German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that she will not seek re-election as chairwoman of the CDU and will not run for another term as chancellor. What consequences result from the political change in Germany for the European Union? Lucas Guttenberg, deputy director of the Jacques Delors Institute Berlin says that this comes at the worst possible moment with regard to the European Council in December.  He expects Germany to maintain its pro-EU consensus and its line regarding Britain’s new place outside the bloc and Rome’s bid to tear up spending rules, but does not see a fresh impetus in Germany’s European policy: “Germany will not be able to commit to anything new.” more

ESM reform: No need to reinvent the wheel

In this blog post, Lucas Guttenberg argues that the ESM does not need a new instrument to provide short-term liquidity to member states. Instead, finance ministers should clarify that some of the existing instruments can be used without recourse to a full adjustment programme, i.e. based only on ex-ante eligibility criteria. more

The Future of the Eurozone

The euro area is not in recovery anymore— it is in full-scale upswing. Even Italy, the current worst performer, will still record 1.3% of growth this year. Looking at these figures, the crisis is clearly behind us and Europe is in decent shape. But substantial risks surround this very flattering outlook. Some of them are economic in nature—most pressingly, the upcoming normalization of ECB monetary policy will be a substantial challenge for a number of member states with high legacy debt. But mostly, the risks are political. The Franco-German compromise at Meseberg has put the right questions on the table. Although they cover only part of the reforms needed for the Eurozone, it makes sense to tackle the three areas now in focus first— banking union, fiscal capacity and ESM reform. more

Why Meseberg matters – A short explainer

Henrik Enderlein and Lucas Guttenberg explain the main features of the Franco-German position on euro area reform as agreed in Meseberg. They argue that it is an important step forward because finally the two biggest euro area countries have agreed to jointly ask the right questions for the future of EMU and are signaling readiness to give joint answers to them. more