Publications by Lucas Guttenberg

Five reasons why the ESM reform will fail to deliver

In this policy brief, Lucas Guttenberg looks at the planned reform of the European Stability Mechanism (ESM). He argues that while the reform is necessary to finally bring home the backstop for banking union, it clearly falls short of its initial ambition to also substantially improve the Eurozone’s crisis management framework. more

Proposal: Budgetary instrument for the euro area

By June, the Eurogroup has to come up with a concrete design for budgetary instrument for the euro area - but so far it is absolutely unclear what it should look like. Our policy paper fills this void and makes a concrete and pragmatic proposal that would make the Eurozone function better. more

The CDU votes – what are the consequences for Europe?

What are the consequences of the new CDU presidency for Europe in general and in particular for the currency union? Lucas Guttenberg, deputy director of the Jacques Delors Institute Berlin explains in the run-up to the elections: "When Merz says that Greece should have left the euro in 2015, he calls into question the euro’s character as an irreversible currency union. If that is really his position, then people should start worrying. Merkel always resisted all attempts to drive Greece out of the euro – even from her own finance minister – because she understood that you cannot run a currency union like a fixed exchange-rate regime. Kramp-Karrenbauer seems to be on the same line. Much like his mentor Schäuble, Merz breaks with the position of the chancellor and puts euro exit as a policy instrument back on the table. If Merz wins and Merkel stays on as chancellor and then a question like Greece arises – who calls the shots and who will the party follow?” more

“This comes at the worst possible moment.”

German Chancellor Angela Merkel announced that she will not seek re-election as chairwoman of the CDU and will not run for another term as chancellor. What consequences result from the political change in Germany for the European Union? Lucas Guttenberg, deputy director of the Jacques Delors Institute Berlin says that this comes at the worst possible moment with regard to the European Council in December.  He expects Germany to maintain its pro-EU consensus and its line regarding Britain’s new place outside the bloc and Rome’s bid to tear up spending rules, but does not see a fresh impetus in Germany’s European policy: “Germany will not be able to commit to anything new.” more

ESM reform: No need to reinvent the wheel

In this blog post, Lucas Guttenberg argues that the ESM does not need a new instrument to provide short-term liquidity to member states. Instead, finance ministers should clarify that some of the existing instruments can be used without recourse to a full adjustment programme, i.e. based only on ex-ante eligibility criteria. more