Brexit: Potential scenarios amid turbulent waters


At the turn of the summer of 2018, we are in turbulent Brexit waters. The only clear fact is that the United Kingdom (UK) intends to exit the EU on 29 March 2019—two years after the British government triggered Article 50 of the TEU. Beyond the effective withdrawal from the EU, a transition period agreed between the two parties should allow the status quo to prevail until December 2020 except that the UK will have no more participation nor say in EU institutions and agencies. The transition period will provide for a much needed delay to negotiate the details of the new post-Brexit relations. Elvire Fabry and Nicole Koenig discuss potential scenarios for EU-UK trade relations and defence cooperation.

This Blog Post was prepared for the 2018 Franco-German Rencontres d’Evian.